Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
