Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
